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How much can Poland realistically replace coal-fired electricity production?


For decades, coal has been the basis of the Polish energy sector, but growing climate pressure, European Union regulations, the need to modernize the sector, and the search for energy independence are forcing Poland to look for alternatives.

More RES, less coal

In 2024, RES (Renewable Energy Sources) in Europe supplied more energy than fossil fuels for the first time, which was an important step towards the energy transition of our continent.

  • In 2024, RES accounted for 50.4% of Europe's total energy mix, reaching the highest share ever.
  • Solar energy provided 11% of the European Union's electricity, surpassing coal's share for the first time, which fell below 10%.
  • Wind energy maintained a stable share of 17.4%, despite the addition of 13 GW of new capacity in 2024.
  • The use of fossil fuels in electricity production in Europe continued its downward trend. Coal-fired power generation fell below 10%, while the share of natural gas decreased to 15.7% from 16.9% in 2023.

In Poland, although the share of coal (56%) and gas (11%) remained high compared to the rest of the EU, these sources accounted for a historically low share of the national energy mix. Renewable sources accounted for 33% of national energy generation.

2024 was a record year for investments in renewable energy sources. 66 GW of new photovoltaic capacity was installed in the European Union, contributing to a 22% increase in solar energy production compared to 2023.

In Poland, 4.1 GW of new photovoltaic capacity was installed, of which 1.3 GW were prosumer micro-installations. Wind energy also saw an increase, with around 0.5 GW of new installations and wind generation up by 1.3 TWh compared to the previous year.

The development of renewable energy sources has contributed to significant savings on fossil fuel imports. Analysts estimate that the European Union has saved around 59 billion euros on fossil fuel imports for energy over the past five years, of which 53 billion euros are savings on gas imports and 6 billion euros on hard coal imports.

Comparing 2024 to 2023, renewable energy sources have taken over a significant part of the energy pie. However, can we really say that RES will replace coal?

Alternatives to coal in the Polish energy sector, as of Q1/2025

Nuclear power

Everyone has heard about the plans to build nuclear power plants in Poland. Some have long lost faith, while others see nuclear energy as a panacea for all problems and the only salvation. The first nuclear power plant is to be built in the 2030s. So we are waiting for the first symbolic groundbreaking. We should also remember that building a nuclear power plant is one thing, but purchasing uranium to power it is also an important element.

Renewable Energy Sources

Wind and solar energy are developing dynamically in Poland. The amendment to the “10H” act has opened up the possibility of building new wind farms. Photovoltaics also still have their '5 minutes'. Yes, RES (Renewable Energy Sources), especially PV (photovoltaic) and wind energy, can replace a significant part of coal-fired power, but their instability requires support in the form of energy storage or pumped-storage power plants. Poland is developing battery technologies and water storage, but their scale is still insufficient. The instability of electricity generation from renewable energy sources affects energy prices. The lack of renewable energy sources is being replaced by the most flexible source of electricity generation: gas-fired power plants, which emit CO2. This situation occurred in Q4/2024 and in January and February 2025.

Gas-fired power plants

Natural gas can play a role as a transition fuel. Poland is building new gas-steam blocks, although dependence on gas imports can be a challenge. The usefulness of gas-fired power plants was particularly evident in Q4/2024 and Q1/2025, when the lack of wind was supplemented by gas-fired power generation.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen (green and blue) can become an important element of the energy transition. Poland is investing in hydrogen technologies, although years of research and investment are still needed for mass implementation.

Extending the life of coal-fired units in the context of climate change

Some coal-fired power stations are being modernized to meet new CO2 emission standards. Investments are being made in dedusting and desulphurization systems. Selected units can be converted to gas combustion, which reduces emissions and improves energy efficiency. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology can help reduce emissions, but it requires significant financial outlay (who will pay for it?).

Cost of energy transition

It is estimated that the total replacement of coal with renewable energy sources requires investments of hundreds of billions of euros by 2050. Key costs include the construction of new wind and solar farms, the expansion of grid infrastructure and energy storage systems. Additional expenses may result from the need to develop gas-fired power plants as backup sources. Despite the impressive growth of renewable energy sources, Europe's energy sector faces challenges related to the integration of these sources into the power system. Fluctuations in renewable energy production due to weather conditions emphasize the need for investment in energy storage technologies and flexible demand management mechanisms. Furthermore, despite the decrease in dependence on Russian gas, in 2024 it still accounted for 14% of total gas consumption in the EU, which indicates the need for further diversification of energy sources. The prices and costs of different electricity generation sources are discussed in our next article.

​Author: Bartosz Palusiński, Consultant

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