Will the European Union actually cut off Russian gas by 2027?
Will the European Union actually break with Russian gas by 2027? After years of dependency and rising geopolitical tensions, the EU is setting its sights on a radical transformation of the energy market. This article takes a closer look at what steps have been taken, what challenges stand in the way of the goal, and what it means for European business and energy security.
From where did this breakthrough come?
Until recently, it was difficult to imagine the European energy market without Russian gas. In 2021, Russia supplied almost half of the gas consumed in the EU, making it one of the most important suppliers of the resource. Over the years, Europe gradually increased its dependence on Russian sources, despite numerous warning signs about the risks involved.
The breakthrough came with the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022. This dramatic moment accelerated the European Union's move toward independence from Russian gas. Already by 2024, Russia's share of Europe's energy mix had fallen to around 19%, and in terms of pipeline gas, even to around 11%.
In May 2025, the European Commission unveiled the "Roadmap to fully end EU dependency on Russian energy", which calls for a complete cessation of Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. As part of the plan, member states must prepare their own strategies for moving away from Russian energy resources.
The breakthrough came with the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022. This dramatic moment accelerated the European Union's move toward independence from Russian gas. Already by 2024, Russia's share of Europe's energy mix had fallen to around 19%, and in terms of pipeline gas, even to around 11%.
In May 2025, the European Commission unveiled the "Roadmap to fully end EU dependency on Russian energy", which calls for a complete cessation of Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. As part of the plan, member states must prepare their own strategies for moving away from Russian energy resources.
Why specifically 2027?
The Commission considered this period the minimum time necessary to implement key changes, such as:
- Expansion of global LNG supply - forecasts by the International Energy Agency indicate a significant increase in LNG production by 2028, which could compensate for the loss of Russian supply.
- Expansion of infrastructure - projects such as Baltic Pipe or LNG terminals in Gdansk, Italy and Greece must be completed and operational by 2027, which requires a great degree of coordination and timely financing.
- Expiring contracts with Gazprom - many long-term contracts expire before 2030, which will facilitate the transition to other suppliers, although the risk of arbitration disputes remains.
- Reducing gas demand - REPowerEU's target is to reduce gas consumption by 30% relative to 2019, which requires accelerating investments in RES and energy efficiency.
Major challenges on the way
- Political - some countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, are still heavily dependent on Russian gas and have expressed opposition to more expensive alternatives. While EU decisions can be made by qualified majority, there is a risk of political tensions and legal disputes.
- Infrastructural - the lack of adequate LNG infrastructure in Central European countries requires accelerating the construction of new interconnections between countries and the expansion of storage facilities.
- Contractual and legal - a ban on imports may force the invocation of force majeure clauses, which could lead to costly arbitration disputes.
- Market and pricing - after a period of relative stability, gas prices rose again in late 2024, mainly due to low RES energy production. Although oversupply of LNG in the next few years may stabilize the market, seasonal price spikes cannot be ruled out.
What does this signal for companies?
1. Increased price volatility - companies should prepare for gas price volatility and consider financial hedges, such as tranche purchases or indexing prices to stock market quotations.
2. Diversification of energy sources - investments in renewable energy, long-term renewable energy contracts and development of in-house facilities such as photovoltaics or biogas cogeneration can help companies minimize risk and meet growing environmental requirements.
3. Green reporting and GoO certificates - changes in the market for GHGs of origin can affect their price and availability, so it makes sense to organize effective emissions monitoring and reporting systems in advance.
2. Diversification of energy sources - investments in renewable energy, long-term renewable energy contracts and development of in-house facilities such as photovoltaics or biogas cogeneration can help companies minimize risk and meet growing environmental requirements.
3. Green reporting and GoO certificates - changes in the market for GHGs of origin can affect their price and availability, so it makes sense to organize effective emissions monitoring and reporting systems in advance.
Is a complete cutoff from Russian gas possible?
Yes, but on the condition that:
- achieving strong political support and financial support mechanisms for countries heavily dependent on Russian gas,
- timely implementation of investments in new LNG terminals,
- maintenance and acceleration of gas demand reduction through investments in efficiency and renewable energy sources.
Is the end of Russian gas in the EU coming?
The EU has made significant progress, reducing the share of Russian gas from 45% to 19% in a matter of years. Achieving total independence by 2027 will require consistent investment, political unity and effective decarbonization efforts. The biggest challenge remains maintaining solidarity among member states and overcoming the risk of political divisions.
However, the implementation of the plan opens up an opportunity to sustainably increase Europe's energy security and dynamically accelerate the green transition, which will make the EU a global leader in the fight against climate change. It is worth remembering, however, that independence from Russian gas may mean new dependencies, especially on LNG supplies from the United States, which will require maintaining good transatlantic relations.
Author: Wojciech Nowotnik
However, the implementation of the plan opens up an opportunity to sustainably increase Europe's energy security and dynamically accelerate the green transition, which will make the EU a global leader in the fight against climate change. It is worth remembering, however, that independence from Russian gas may mean new dependencies, especially on LNG supplies from the United States, which will require maintaining good transatlantic relations.
Author: Wojciech Nowotnik
Sources:
- https://enerace.eu/blog/europe-without-gas-from-russia-prices
- EU Council infographic: Where does the EU’s gas come from?
- European Commission, Roadmap to fully end EU dependency on Russian energy
- Reuters, “EU to propose ban on Russian gas imports by end-2027”
- Speech by Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, Strasbourg
- IEA, Gas Market Report Q1‑2025
- Eurostat & ICE Endex, spot and futures price data
