For many people and companies, insight into the history of a few months or even years ago is an important point of reference: important for determining the energy purchasing strategy as well as the components of the company's budget, which include the cost of gas and electricity.
The lack of such data may be a significant risk factor related to the fact that the forecasts assumed in the budget do not meet its actual implementation.
An important point of reference
Are the current spot prices high or low? What is the price of electricity or gas compared to CO2 or coal? We need historical data to answer this question. The longer the perspective, the better we are able to consolidate the view on what the market looks like at this moment or how the events of last year or a few years ago influenced price volatility and our purchasing decisions.
Chart showing the number of price level at a given moment against the prices that have occurred since January 2019 for the quotations of the Base_Y-21 product
Historical data can also be used to develop a tool that will suggest when there are price opportunities against historical prices and, in such a case, what purchase decisions may be:
By the way, it is worth considering the form of data presentation. Do I really need raw data to develop graphical forms of charts or tables myself? Or maybe it is worth using a chart from a ready-made tool to present the results of our purchasing activities against the market?
A wider perspective
The economic situation of Poland undoubtedly influences the energy market in the country. History also teaches us that events outside Poland (or any other European country) also have a significant impact on our home European/ domestic energy market.
We felt the impact of the drastic increase in the prices of CO2 emission allowances in particular, when the first electricity bills appeared in 2019. However, we analyze not only CO2 emission prices, but also gas prices in more mature markets, such as the Dutch TTF gas hub, or the German NCG or Gaspool. Thanks to the data from previous years, we learn about the consequences of the tests of nuclear blocks in France in the fourth quarter of 2016 or the more distant disaster in Fukushima.
Thanks to historical data, we can develop tools that will facilitate the work of energy buyers. Showing how the prices of electricity and gas have behaved in recent years is a matter of a few clicks and the graph can be generated in no time.
In addition, if we have data on other energy commodities, such as oil, coal or CO2, we can very easily show certain dependencies, compare them and check for which markets the CO2 price strongly supported the increases in 2019 or 2020? What was responsible for the rising electricity prices in Germany in 2017?
Good decisions for the future and conclusions from previous years.
Information about your price history allows you to establish relationships and explain changes in your energy bills. Let us remember, however, that historical data is not only old decisions and "history". It is also a list of products that you will buy sooner or later.
Without information on prices from previous years, we get misleading or incomplete information:
The BASE_Y-22 forward product has been listed on the Polish Power Exchange since December 2018. You have been able to make energy purchase decisions for 2022 since 2018 - without historical data it is impossible to say whether the current price level is attractive or very high compared to history. Such knowledge can help you make a good purchasing decision.
Data analysis alone is certainly not enough. Without a proper assessment of the impact of the energy cost on your business, the conclusions from historical data, and thus the results of actions based on them, can be deplorable.
It is worth taking advantage of this situation to verify the tools available on the market and choose what actually meets our needs and although it will be an expense, it will provide an appropriate added value to our activities leading to an optimal purchase.
Author: Wojciech Nowotnik